Last summer the list of ‘thriving’ UK PC manufacturers contained a very familiar list of players. These were RM plc, Akhter plc, Evesham Computers Ltd and Viglen Ltd.

The industry collectively had concentrated on the public sector market, especially the education sector, since it was becoming clear that retail selling in an ultra cut-throat market was untenable.

The dangers of retail selling were graphically illustrated by the sudden collapse of much loved Evesham computers in late 2007 following Gordon Brown’s axing of the Home Computer Initiative. Their education public sector contracts, which we shall see were being squeezed too, were not sufficient to save them.

This is where it starts to get interesting.

Of the players left, for Viglen, Akhter and RM, times are getting very hard indeed.

RM has posted figures this Spring showing a small profit-to-turnover ratio, despite the successful launch of the Linux EeePC into the education market.

Akhter’s position in fact is very difficult to analyse as they are part of a very diverse engineering group and have strong trade in Pakistan, all of which are making sensible profits. They are ironically in a stronger position to weather any storm than their bigger rivals.

Viglen too currently seem OK due to a strong presence in the server market but they see problems ahead. Their CEO, Bordan Tkachuk of Alan Sugar’s ‘The Apprentice’ fame, sees ‘little appetite for major Vista deployments’ and thinks that the for the education sector the future will lay in the Linux sub notebooks as espoused by RM.

It’s in Bordan’s ‘Vista’ comment that the original conjecture regarding the health of UK PC companies lays.

The trail leads straight back to Becta’s infamous procurement frameworks.

The ICT procurement frameworks are populated by a very select few which in addition to the above companies include the outsourcing specialists Capita and Serco.

Up to about 2005, being on the list was a licence to print money. Schools were very generously funded for ICT equipment and BECTA had signed its memorandum of understanding with Microsoft to ensure that schools used their products.

During these days many of the un-favoured went to the wall, Acorn computers being the most renowned supplier to the education sector.

After 2005 however the situation started to change for the UK PC manufacturers.

Firstly, the rise of cost-cutting outsourcers such as Capita pushed hardware procurement into generic commoditised products making it harder to sell desktop PCs at a profit when badged with RM or Viglen logos.

Secondly, subsidies for school software (the e-credit scheme) came to an end at the same time as did ring-fenced ICT funding for schools.

Thirdly, and this will prove to be the killer blow, BECTA advised schools in 2007 and 2008 not to upgrade to Vista or Office 2007.

The hand that fed the big companies had suddenly decided to throttle them.

A survey of the surviving manufacturer’s product list on their web sites for 2008-9 shows a hint of desperation. RM and Viglen are hovering over a decision to commit to Linux through the netbook market, Akther, RM and Viglen are dabbling with green computing. None show any confidence that they can see the way forward.

Without the upgrade cycle and the subsidised software that built these companies over the past 15 years the money will run out very fast. I expect to hear a few more hard luck stories in the coming year or two.

Once again, it will be hard luck on schools. The likes of Capita and Serco will soon dominate. They are however management companies not innovators. There are no (approved) companies that can take forward the coming Open Source revolution, so it looks like the taxpayer will be left in the hands of the big outsourcers.

Well done Becta in your time you may yet preside over the complete extinction of the UK PC business with one notable exception hitherto unmentioned, Elonex.

The British company Elonex are now shipping their Elonex One, the well-received ultra-low cost sub-notebook running on (of course) Open Source software.

Let’s wish them luck.

The simple answer is 'yes' we could do it now and we will save the taxpayer millions of pounds.

In previous posts I have documented the exponential rise in school ICT costs over the past 20 years. The articles focussed on costing ICT fully. This meant summing the costs of software purchase, software licensing, hardware replacement cycle, support costs and for the first time, electricity costs. The latter now make up 20% of the total ICT spend of a secondary school's £100,000-£200,000 annual total.
 
Missing from the earlier work, for which I apologise, were peripherals such as printers and photocopiers.

My motivation for revisiting the topic  came from finding out that laser printer and photocopiers use identical  technologies and typically draw 1.5 kw when active and 200 watts on standby. As I happen to be working with a secondary school at the moment I was able to investigate further. 
 
The school's electricity cost accruing from printing and photocopying was under £1000 per year at current prices: I confess to a being a little disappointed I had imagined it was more and it did not amount to more than an extra few PCs.
 
The shock came, though, when the total  number of sheets of A4 that passed through plain paper faxes, photocopiers and laser printers were calculated. It came to 4,450,000 per year. Or, in this school, 8,000 copies per child and one copy every 2 secs per year with a total cost of just below £100,000! The entire T5 airport terminal project only produced 8,000,000 copies per year and they ran 24/7.
 
The question was instantly begged 'is this normal for schools?'. It turns out it is.
 
Chosen at random, a City Academy and a few 'bog standard comps' (not my choice of phrase) produce similar numbers of prints as does my test school and have similar bills. To be fair, my  school had 700 students and the others more like 1400, so they are more 'economical'.
 
Simple sums produce scale-up figures for the UK schools, these are: 20 billion prints at 500 million pounds per annum.
 
Let's take a step back. The last 20 years has seen the massive development of ICT in schools from a standing start to a ratio of one computer for every four students. The same period saw the first photocopier in schools and the first laser printer ( I remember carrying our one in ). 

It would seem that the paperless office does not extend to the paperless school. In fact it appears quite the opposite. As ICT costs have grown so have paper related costs. Neither yet show any signs of abating.
 
It does not have to be like this.

Back at the office, (where I work as an ICT consultant) I cannot, hand-on-heart, claim that it is 'paperless'. But truly it is an event when the printer has to be run and usually associated with some cursing. Also, being an Open Source company, we get all of our software as downloads so not much is copied to disc either.
 
Obviously, everyone has a computer (laptops have replaced desktops by choice) and interestingly a notebook and pencil/pen at the ready. We have a library of well thumbed reference books too.  Like us UK secondary schools all have networks and Internet access, but obviously they do not have a computer each.
 
Solution: give everyone one of the new open source netbooks and fully wirelessly connect the campus.  Stop handing out work sheets, printing homeworks and e-mails etc etc, look at a flat screen screen instead.
 
To give every child in the country a new Linux notebook,  would cost less than the annual printout bill.  Within a school the old PC's and all but the web server would wither and die from lack of use (except for specialised applications) thus saving further millions.  No more digital divide, no need for paper and no need for text books (they would all be on the server).
 
Thinking 'is this how it has to be?'  is what really defines Open Source thinking.  The new low cost, low energy computers came out of  possibilities created by Open Source software development. Open Source software itself appeared as if from thin air as a result of thinking 'is this how it has to be, lets change it' 
 
Schools are very conservative, they like to keep on doing what they have always done, and no one likes to think they got it wrong, but does anyone feel in a position to defend school ICT as it is, on a benefit-cost quotient? 

ICT spending in UK schools is unsustainable but it could be cut by 90% with the help of Open Source software and the latest innovations in personal computing dubbed NetBooks.

ARM wars?

The latest salvo in the new chip war gives some indication of what is to come and just how soon it will happen. NVidia’s release this week of their ARM-based Tegra CPU uses an astonishingly meagre 1 watt of power and rivals Intel’s new 2 watt Atom chip.

Both chips are technical wonders (low enough in power to make photovoltaic devices a reality) and both signal a clear break away from Microsoft’s dominating influence in Desktop-PC-CPU specification.

New devices based on these chips will use Open Source applications and sport Linux operating systems. No one, surely, expects otherwise? Windows XP continuing to 2010 is hardly a solution to Microsoft’s empty OS larder for this new market sector.

So called NetBooks are being designed and launched by all major manufacturers. The new chips make last year’s 6 watt Asus EeePc seem rather greedy.

The coming of the NetBook will make the PC obsolete in schools except where specialist applications such as CAD are needed.

Education is the target market

The impact will be felt in education first. RM has lead the way in the UK with the amazingly successful Linux based EeePC. Other suppliers will follow.

As for the OLPC (One Laptop per Child Project) these new low cost, low power computers will be aimed at children and education where resistance to adoption is low and interest in innovation is high.

What is the ideal NetBook for schools?

• Think the Asus’ EeePC to get a feel for the size; make the screen fill one side of the clam shell and think along the lines of Amazon’s Kindle e-book for readability.
• Make the keyboard-side the same thickness as the screen side. Now fit a wireless interface, embed an OS and a few useful applications including a browser and a decent terminal server client. If you turn it on its side hinge vertical) it’s a e-book. When horizontal it’s a notebook PC.
• Let the screen flip (a la Apple), and give it 7 hours battery life.
• The NetBook is not only a PC-notebook but a thin-client and a universal text book.
• The Netbook will access content wirelessly from the School’s File Server, Intranet and Publishers electronic textbooks.

Maybe this machine will turn up this year, maybe next year, but turn up it will and soon: the new chips have made this a certainty.

ICT procurement

That ICT in schools will change radically is obvious but less obvious is the effect it will have on the procurement of ICT in schools.

Very recently schools have undergone a sea change in their attitude to ICT. E-learning credits have gone, ring-fenced ICT budgets have gone. They are now in stasis, unsure of which way to go, discouraged from entering the latest upgrade cycle by official Government advice and facing cuts in their budgets.

The love affair with network rooms full of expensive power hungry PCs running the latest bloated software is over. Shrinking budgets and steeply rising energy costs have seen to that.

Furthermore the pedagogical claims of proprietary ‘interactive learning software’ are dying away and anything that is remotely useful is on the Web.

With the emergence of Free Open Source Software and genuine low cost personal computing devices, schools can quite simply do the following:

1. Stop paying for software and software licences.
2. Stop buying any computer equipment that draws more than 30 watts when operational and extend the life cycle of existing computers.
3. Stop the printers and the photocopiers.

It is not really necessary to elaborate on the above. Previous posts have done so at length.

Possibly, paper addicts may wince at point 3 but in terms of cost these devices are the biggest single equipment/electricity/consumables technology in a school.

It doesn't take a fortune teller to predict that the above developments may mean many traditional ICT vendors will simply not exist in five years’ time.

Emerging business-models

In a previous post I described ‘the great VLE scam’. VLE or learning Platforms have been slow to get a grip of teachers’ enthusiasm. In most cases they are forced upon schools. The sticking point has always been content. The problem is solved by deals such as those made by the content publishing house Pearson.

Quite simply the VLE will be delivery device for a publisher’s e-text book market. Expect many other VLE-publisher exclusives in the near future.

Schools have to pay for text books even e-textbooks. A new gravy train is departing on the back of an ever diverse curriculum.

Schools and LA’s will have specific requirements for applications in education. The Open University provides a good example. The OU decided to use the VLE Moodle for part of its distance learning provision. Moodle, like all VLEs, did not do exactly what the OU needed. However because it's Open Source software the OU simply paid for it to be changed to meet their needs - an impossible notion for a major proprietary product.

It follows that the future vendors will be knowledge-based companies able to develop and customise products as required by the users. This means Open Source software. No user adapts proprietary software to their needs, you adapt to what it can do.

Summary

In five year’s time it is likely that:

1. There will be no proprietary software or hardware market in education capable of sustaining even a medium sized company.
2. Schools will have slashed their ICT expenditure.
3. Publishing houses will reclaim their pre-eminence in content provision through quickly updatable e-textbooks delivered through VLEs.
4. Specialist suppliers will adapt and develop Open Source software for a new emerging market.

How things change so quickly.